Market analysis

Coffee: two markets, two ways to play
Coffee price bustle at the beginning of the month Raw coffee market in the Central Highlands province flourished since the beginning of July, 2014 when the price of robusta futures at ICE in London Liffe beyond high closing price of last June. Indeed, the London robusta prices closed late on Wednesday July 2 nd 2014 reach 2047 dollars / tons, exceeding the top price of June 2014 was 13 dollars / ton is 2034 dollars / ton up on June 27th and is further than the lowest level of the previous month - 153 dollars / ton.

 Raw coffee prices on the domestic market yesterday - Thursday July 3rd up to 40.5 million / ton, more than 0.5 million / ton over a week ago. This level also touched on last week, but fell back within the first few days and weeks due to the closing sale prices sent buyers strongly warehouse.

"Do not think that if the price down further, the stock will sell more. For many today, the price less than 40 million / ton very difficult to buy, so exporters are afraid to sell to foreigners "a dealer in Buon Ma Thuot City said.

 Indeed, when futures prices down deep under 1900 dollars / ton, the difference between the floor price for export and FOB terms (delivery to ships) are offered at or above the listed price. So, these futures prices today rose may due to business had to purchase via internet on the floor and stretched to increase prices in order to buy goods and may reconcile the actual (physical), analyst said. Export prices of type 2, 5% black broken this morning are being offered except 30-40 dollars / tons, but imports are paying customers minus 60-65 dollars / ton below the price listed London robusta floor.


 Each market each way to go 

A phenomenon on the coffee market which many people have not found an explanation: while rumors arabica crop, sales vomlume from the leading exporter of arabica prices remain strong on the floor leading to specialist trading in New York arabica wale continuous shot. Meanwhile, many experts have identified the world′s robusta output virtually unharmed but selling pressure from the key countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia reduced strongly.

The report of Brazilian Trade Ministry on June, 2014 coffee exports reached 2.6222 million, up to nearly 26% compared to 2.0836 million bags in the same period last year despite a rumors circulating drought in Brazil has not end.

 Meanwhile, exports of Indonesian coffee in June fell 41% compared with the same period last year, reaching 6897.62 tons. Cumulative exports of coffee first 9 months of the 2013/14 crop reached 174,303.96 tons, down 1.5% compared to 177,303.96 tonnes in the same period of the previous crop year, the statistics of the central bank revealed. 

General Statistics Office estimated that the coffee exports of our country on June, 2014 reduced to 110,000 tons compared to 137 400 tons in the five previous months.  

Until now, many people will believe that the lack of quality arabica but very weak prices, from around U.S. $ 4,850 / tonne in mid-May 4-2014 to only 3,815 dollars / ton; robusta was still trading around $ 2,000 / ton, which is higher than previously only 1500-1600 dollars / ton in late 2013.  

Production factor, supply and demand in this case is hardly decided the market price which is probably due to other factors. Is it due to the control the export volume of robusta coffee countries?

Specialist: Nguyễn Quang Bình

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